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NFL - Miami at New England (4:15 PM ET – CBS)
Pointspreads are coming back down to earth in New England games as despite projections a couple weeks back of the first 30-point line in NFL history, the Patriots will be laying just 22 to the Dolphins on Sunday.2007-12-21
Pointspreads are coming back down to earth in New England games as despite projections a couple weeks back of the first 30-point line in NFL history, the Patriots will be laying just 22 to the Dolphins on Sunday.
HC Bill Belichick’s team has clinched home field advantage in the playoffs but still has that one other goal in mind…a perfect season. Miami is riding high after winning its first game of ’07 over Baltimore, after which it proceeded to celebrate as if winning the Super Bowl. The chances for two-in-a row are miniscule, as the Dolphins are on an ugly 0-8 ATS skid in the second half of the season vs. teams winning 75% or more of their games, being outscored by a 32.0-4.5 margin! The Pats are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their L7 hosting Miami.
The Dolphins are beyond explanation other than to say they are one of the worst teams in league history, a fact proven by their abysmal record but somewhat challenged by the statistics. On defense, the Fins have potential, holding teams to less than 180 passing yards per game. It is on offense where the troubles begin, lacking proven ability at nearly every position on the field and desperate for a sense of purpose that has been missing since RB Ronnie Brown was lost to injury.
On the other side of the field resides a team that will challenge for the title of best ever. The Patriots have dominated in all facets of the game and have yet to need a prolific contribution from the rushing offense. The leadership of QB Tom Brady is unmatched and has led this team to a level of success rarely seen in the NFL. There have been challenges, but it appears this team has persevered and is now ready to charge forward towards historical greatness.
Keys to the Game
Two teams on a collision course, each coming from opposite directions. This contest should break the all-time record for a spread margin in a National Football League game, unless word leaks Miami wants to rest starters (just kidding). The only question of value from this AFC East division contest is who will cover the spread. The Patriots are 12-2 ATS the last seven seasons during the last two weeks of the year. Miami, with its ever-growing problems, will be faced with more questions to be answered than a Democratic debate. There is no debating the Dolphins have failed in the Northeast with 1-6 ATS mark.
Trends
~ Miami is 9-24 ATS in December division tilts.
~ New England is 22-8-1 ATS as a division favorite.
StatFox Edge – Patriots cover